Lioness Associates, Inc.

Economic & Corporate Risk/Yield Reports

October 26, 2012  -- Alexion Risk/Yield Update for 2012

Refer to Reading Graphs for information on interpretation of the graphs. Note, graphs have been updated with the latest algorithm.

Note, while there was a heavy move into risk during the summer of 2012, this was caused by many smaller configurations with less overall impact in business circumstances and resulted in a relatively quick in and out movement.

Looking at the configurations in more detail brought out that their potential investors are likely not going to understand the company products very well and that may be a deterrent for new investors from the general public unless they are well-versed in the new fields and even institutional investors might be limited to those specializing in this particular field. The price action recently suggests that institutional investors might be selling (
see article) as per some commentary.

One point that is worth mentioning is that overall activity decreased between September to the November 2012 period. That is shown in the Total Risk & Yield graph.  The graph does show an increase of activity in November/December period which corresponds with a momentum move into Yield in December but, with the fiscal cliff approaching it's unsure whether any potential could be realized.


May 29, 2012  -- Alexion Pharmaceuticals Risk/Yield for 2012

Quite a bit of "fluff" about Alexion Pharmaceuticals last week.  It replaced one of the existing companies in the S&P 500 so interest was peaked about this company's stock and it saw volume explode to about 25 million shares last week on Thursday, May 24th.  This volume is about 8x what it normally does and this is for a stock that as of last earnings, has about 200 million shares in circulation bringing the shares in play to a bit more than 10%.

Recent write-ups and online sites are marking this stock as "one poised to jump" according to the technicals (see article).  Not very long ago, this stock was downgraded (see article) according to it's fundamentals. While the fundamentals were not bad, there was concern whether the current growth curve could continue.

Looking at the astrological configurations it's hard to see where there is going to be any follow-up to last week.  The ALXN Delta Core/Transient 2012 graph is showing activity moving into the Yield for both Core and Transient but, this was primarily for the May 2012 period and as it moves into June 2012 period, indicators start to fall into "Risk" for both Core and Transient. 

The ALXN Risk/Yield 2012 graph also has the same indication and has a more visual representation that both March and May of 2012 are showing nice peaks into "yield" for both core and transient but, this is not occurring again this year.  Although ....  the end of the year looks like another peak might be forming but if it does, it would not occur until next year.

We'll check back after earnings and see where this stock went in the interim.

          ALXN Delta Core/Transient 2012 graph

                ALXN Risk/Yield 2012 graph

Disclosure as of 5/29/2012 - Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) is not part of our portfolio at this time.