Lioness Associates, Inc.

Economic & Corporate Risk/Yield Reports

December 21, 2012  -- China Risk/Yield for 2013

China is likely to do better than most of the world in the January/February 2013 time frame but, by the same token, some of the world's problems will weigh on this country during that period.  This is identified by delta core (see China Delta Core/Transient graph below) being predominantly in yield thru the first few months of the year and may work to help lift the rest of the global economies.   Conversely, when the global economy picks up in the late spring and summer, the Chinese economy is likely to have lost momentum but, then the global and USA politicks during that period are likely to lift the Chinese economy.  The loss of momentum occurs near the May 2013 time frame and could be the result of new policies put into place but, we'll revisit the graphs in February of 2013 and see if the situation at that time sheds any light on the April/May time frame.

During the first part of 2013, the delta transient (see China Delta Core/Transient graph below) has two significant swings, one in February and the other in April. The April 2013 dip into risk is showing up not only in this graph but, also graphs for the USA and the global economies which is not unusual but, then again not usual either.  This does indicate short-term situations impacting a few countries — maybe tension arising from North Korea or Iran ... as the time draws nearer the situation should become clearer.  

It's fitting that we recap on one of the astrological angles from 2012 before we move to the coming year.  One of the angles from 2012 that is dissipating coincided with the incident of corruption by Bo Xiphias (see link). It's important to note that this corruption by a public official was not hidden from the public, rather it was dealt with in the public arena — yes, it was controlled from start to finish but, it was still a public disclosure.

Additional angles are forming for 2014 that may bring China towards some type of forced  arrangement in dealing with dissidents or their people simply wanting to have social discourses on their government both pro and con.  This angle will start to form near the end of 2013, will not be in place until 2014.  It's mentioned now because in 2013 it's likely that some friction will start to show up in this direction.   

March of 2013 is likely to have sudden changes in direction and this most likely is due to the expected step down of the past president in March of 2013 — the previous president did not step down for two years so, this could be interesting but, then again .. maybe not.  At the same time, there is evidence of a growing optimism (maybe pride) from the official change of leadership and direction. While the USA has been changing the political leadership constantly over our history and practice has made our process run efficiently (in most cases), China is still working out the process.

November of 2013 shows increasing tension between neighbors amid the constant clashes over sea/land rights.  This has the potential to become a powder-keg.