Lioness Associates, Inc.

Economic & Corporate Risk/Yield Reports

7/4/2012 - Deckers Outdoor (DECK) update

The 2012 comments for Deckers Outdoor made on March 8th and April 26th (noted below) are still pertinent.  A DECK stock price chart for January thru June 2012 has been added to the March 8, 2012 write-up for graph comparison purposes.

The next earnings are due near the end of July 2012 and there are mixed reviews from analysts on what to expect.  One analyst (see article) had a particular insightful opinion and has moved his rating from "underperform" to "neutral".

There are two new graphs with the write-up today, the DECK 2012 Core & Transient graph and the DECK 2012 Total Risk/Yield Activity graph.  Overall, the astrological configurations support the view that there is less momentum into risk but, there is not yet momentum into Yield and this is depicted in the graphs. 

The DECK 2012 Core & Transient graph is a "sum" of the Core and Transient and in effect, places the transient momentum onto the core momentum. This is similar to a wave riding on another wave.  This graph indicates that the "astrological numbers" still place Deckers Outdoor in the risk (below 0) between the March to September 2012 period or at least close enough into risk that it might warrant closer examination.  There is some upward movement into yield in the September 2012 period which might coincide with the "back-to-school" buying.

The DECK 2012 Total Risk/Yield Activity graph is a "sum" of astrological factors and simply indicates activity without any reference as to whether the activity is risk or yield.  The notable take away from this graph is that the highest level of activity occurred in the spring of 2012 and the activity for the rest of the year gradually fades from that period. 

There have been comments that Deckers may be dealing with a product that is fading but, this has been discounted by some (see article).  There is nothing to indicate (as of yet) that this is or isn't a fad in the astrological configurations for this year.  Although, there are indications that August of 2012 might see an indication that the "bad news is out of the way for now" mentality.  



April 26, 2012  -- Deckers Outdoor Update
Deckers Outdoor reported earnings today and missed expectations (see article).  As we previously noted in the March 8, 2012 post,  this company will have challenges shown by the momentum into "risk" during the May 2012 period (see the DECK Core/Transient 2012 graph).  The "risk" momentum lessons somewhat as the year continues.  The DECK Risk/Yield 2012 graph (below) depicts the preponderance of "risk" factors versus the "yield" factors for the 2012 year.    

March 8, 2012  -- Deckers Outdoor Corporation Risk/Yield for 2012

 The latest news yesterday on Deckers Outdoor Corporation was a miss on earnings resulting in a drop of stock price from Tuesday's (3/6/12) close of 74.68 to a close of 67.35 on Wednesday (3/7/12).

The Delta Core/Transient graph shows a move into a predominantly "risk" environment at the March 2012 period.  This "risk" will continue for the next few months. 

The Deckers Outdoor Corporation Risk/Yield graph depicts that while there are some "core yield" data points, the majority are "core risk" and as a result, suggest a challenging period during the 2012 summer period.


      Deckers Delta Core/Transient 2012 graph

     DECK Closing Stock Price 1/2012 - 6/2012 (from Yahoo)

       Deckers Risk/Yield 2012 Graph