December 18, 2012 — Deckers (DECK) Risk/Yield for 2013
The 2013 outlook for Deckers is mixed - while there is a significant uptick in the spring, there is little build up to the peak and very little tapering down, indicating that there is likely to be momentum but short-lived and probably hard to catch. The beginning of the year has the core tracking a bit below the equilibrium indicating that there is not much change in the big picture although there is significant transient activity in the yield area which could be a result of the expected earnings release coming shortly. There is a noticeable lack of activity for the first two months of the year again, signifying that the long term picture is not changing much. The end of the year has a significant dip into risk and at this time, it is too distant to speculate as to what situation could develop.
The weather will also be key, if inventory is left over from the holidays, a cold and stormy start to the new year could purge any leftovers.
Likelihood of new products being announced in the spring timeframe similar to what was done in 2012 and there are some indications that there may be a pull back or re-styling for the men's collection. In my opinion, they have a great model in Tom Brady but, putting him in slippers sitting at an outdoor cafe - not sure what the thought was behind this. Astrological configurations occurring in the spring timeframe might help to fine-tune their message on men's footwear.
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