To update from the last article dated April 4, 2012, after earnings the stock hovered around 139 for a high but, days after the earnings were announced, the trend for the general market took a down ward movement and this company didn't have enough yield momentum to overcome that. In fact at the April period, most of the momentum for this stock was into risk as was shown in the FFIV 2012 Delta Risk/Yield graph provided back in April.
Currently, it looks like there may be some activity over the next week or two. This stock does have an astrological configuration that indicates that there might be an uptick around the middle of August for a few days ~~ maybe a week. But, the end of August and a portion of September look challenging -- maybe not into risk, but challenging.
This update also includes a newer version of the FFIV 2012 Risk/Yield graph (in color and minor algorithm change).
This stock does have a momentum move into yield at the end of the year and it looks like it is occurring at the time of a movement into yield by the USA economy (see home page) which could signal a general lift in prices of the market. Since this stock also has a lift at the same time, it could be one to watch around the October timeframe.
April 4, 2012 -- FFIV Risk/Yield 2012
FFIV has come a significant distance since the beginning of the year when it was priced at about 104. It is slowly approaching it's previous high from last year and with earnings coming shortly on April 18th it begs the question - is this the time to sell or hold on for more gains.....
From examining it's graphs and in this case, looking a bit more under the surface at the data points, it looks like there may be one more momentum push at around the 16th of April which is right before the earnings. To add a bit of confusion, the USA economy is likely looking at a slight dip with an uptick in the April period (see the home page) which may impact any momentum due to earnings for this specific stock.
I'll make the decision on whether to hold or sell near the close of business on April 16th - if there has been a significant surge by that time then I'll likely sell.
FFIV Delta Core/Transient 2012 graph
FFIV Risk/Yield 2012 graph
Disclosure as of 4/4/2012 - FFIV is part of our portfolio at this time.
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