As the year draws to a close the number of potentially explosive situations around the world increase. The 2012 year started with problems in Greece and as that became sidelined (not solved, simply sidelined) and the elections in the US came to the forefront and with them — the fiscal cliff became the "gorilla in the room". There were also the changes in Chinese top government which have not received as much attention as they deserve and which will surely backhand the rest of the globe when least expected.
And just recently, problems in Syria, Egypt, Gaza, and Argentina.....
The good news (yes, there is good news) is that the US economy is improving. The jobs numbers are getting better, people are more confident, our energy possibilities are staggering, and the holiday season could ring up some good dollars (as long as international incidents are null). The downside is that banks are not lending and at such a low interest rate, it probably doesn't pay for them to extend the effort — sometimes keeping rates low for too long does not achieve the desired effect and instead, hinders — just my opinion. See more about that in the USA economy for December 2012.
As December rolls in there is a chance
- that the uneasy peace in Gaza will not last
- that the Argentine issue could become a significant catalyst as US banks are being asked to pay all creditors rather than just a select few that Argentine negotiated with and this could possibly erode confidence in the global banking system
- that the Syrian terrorist attack is a smoke screen to divert attention while other attacks are being planned
- that Egypt could fall into instability rather than moving towards a stable government
- that China's new government decides to flex it's muscles
- that Greece could need more money but, it seems that the world has become immune to that news
- that the fiscal cliff is not moving towards a reasonable conclusion in the coming weeks
- that Iran is further along with it's nuclear capability than previously thought
Having said all that and looking at the Global Risk/Yield for 2012, specifically the December period — there is a pronounced risk. It should be mentioned that there are also yield factors to alleviate some of that risk but, not all of it. My interpretation (others could differ) of the astrological angles indicate that there is likely to be some incident near the middle of December but, could be a week earlier or later. If so, global financial markets could be unsettled briefly. To allow for easier comparison purposes between the Delta Core/Transient and the USA market, a SPY stock price chart has been included along with a link back to the original chart. Especially notice the red risk areas in the Risk/Yield and compare them with the corresponding periods in the SPY stock price chart. Note, the SPY stock price chart only covers up to November 26th.
Let's not leave this on a negative thought — the graphs for 2013 are indicating that it could be a pretty good year for the global economy. Those graphs will be uploaded within a week or so.