December 4, 2012 -- Global Perspective (Risk/Yield) for January 2013
As noted in the Global Risk/Yield for December 2012 (link), there are countless issues that are making for a worrisome global environment and hence less stable footing for economies worldwide.
Between the December 2012 and the January 2013 Risk/Yield, Core drops below the equilibrium of 0 and moves into risk in December 2012 and stays there until January 2013 and then, moves into yield. An assumption is that some type of deal has been struck for the fiscal cliff in the US but, it could also be one of the many other unresolved issues around the globe that "is handled".
Important point is that while there may be a down period (Dec/Jan), it is relatively short and there are indications of a nice bounce-back for the last part of January and most of February and the transient also picks up into yield in February 2013. Without going to far into 2013, let's take a quick look at the core dip into risk in March — some indications of a building storm (debt ceiling?) and the transient is rising in yield at that point so expect conflicting signals on economies.
Expect the next Global Perspective update in January 2013.
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