The 2009 Risk/Yield graph and Delta Core/Transient graphs indicate that most of the year is in yield area. Core has momentum into yield from 3/1 to about 5/1. The slight dip at 4/1 could indicate delaying entry until 4/1 instead of the first passing of the equilibrium line at 0 at 3/1.
The peak occurs at 5/1 but, anytime up until that point could be a valid exit point. Note, this peak actually consists of two peaks and the second peak tops at 7/15. In cases like this, it could indicate continued higher momentum, a sideways motion, or even drifting downwards. In this case, the transient has a sharp movement into risk indicating that maybe the first peak is a better exit point. The stock price dropped sharply at about 7/15.
There is another possible entry point later in the year at the 11/1 period where the core again crosses the 0 equilibrium point and appears to be heading for a brisk move into yield.
Using the stock price chart and comparing it with the DE 2009 Delta Core/Transit graph, the following possible entry and exit points are becoming evident.
First entry at 3/1 period when Core crosses over 0 equilibrium and is moving into yield with a 400+ peak, exit at 5/1 or 6/1 period. Exit at this point because having extended peaks like this can signify either another move up or a drifting motion which could be sideways but more likely to be downwards. Looking at the delta transient, there is a sharp downtrend at the 7/15 period which could act as confirmation that there is likely to be a down motion which did happen.
Next entry would be 11/1 when the delta core again crosses the 0 equilibrium point into yield moving towards a 400+ peak and the exit is at 12/15 at first glance but, the rest of peak is not visible since it likely goes into 2010 period.
Note, any peaks and valleys shown in individual corporate charts should be confirmed with the global and the USA economic graphs. As many have said, "a high tide lifts all boats". If a valley is shown in either a global or USA graph for a particular time and the corporate graph has a nice peak at that period, then caution should be the keyword.
In addition, the algorithms used to generate the graphs sample twice a month —on the 1st and 15th and thus, actual peaks/valleys could be occurring before or after a peak shown on graph. For this reason, these graphs are meant to be used with both technical and fundamental analysis.
A general note on the 2008 graphs is that there is no 400+ movement into yield indicating that there may not be appreciable increase in stock price. There is a -400 movement into risk at the end of the year which did see the stock price drop.
There are two main points to note when comparing the DE INC Delta Core/Transient 2008 graph against the actual stock price.
The DE Delta Core/Transient graph indicates that from the period from January to October 2008, the Core is primarily in the Yield area of the graph. The transient has more movement and has down spikes at the 3/15, 5/15 and 9/15 periods. While the Core stays in Yield, it is not having a significant momentum surge (400+) rather, it is moving approximately 100 points in the yield area. Moves like this are difficult to interpret as to whether it will continue to climb or to simply drift downward —in this case it was drifting downward. In this case, the use of Technical Analysis would have likely identified a "good exit point".
There is sharp drop of the Core into Risk near the October/November timeframe corresponding with an actual drop in stock price. The drop starts at about the July period and is showing a significant enough of a move (down to an equilibrium of 0 and then into risk) to signal caution. The later drop in October/November affects not only the Core but, the transient as well.
Note, at the beginning of the year, the Core was at approximately 450 and as the year progressed, the Core value was dropping.
It may be worthwhile to examine the Deere & Co 2007 Risk/Yield graph as a comparison to the 2008 graph. This graph has a dominant "Yield" concentration thru out the 2007 year with some "Transient Yield" spikes. The point values in the 2007 year are also much higher. Note also that the "Risk" factors both "Core" and "Transient" are low, much lower than in 2008. A broad statement could be made that the 2007 year was an up momentum while the 2008 year is a down momentum.
Two notes on comparing the graphs to the actual stock price.
Core had very strong momentum >400+ into Yield
The transient movements with the dips at the 5/15, 8/1, 9/1, and 11/15 correspond to either a sideways movement or a dip in the stock price.
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