Lioness Associates, Inc.

Economic & Corporate Risk/Yield Reports

September 23, 2012 - 2012 Risk/Yield Update

The last write-up on April 29, 2012 indicated that the new coffee machine due out in fall 2012 might miss being in stores in enough time for the holiday season.  Announcements this week indicate that the machine will be available online starting this week (see article) and will be in stores next month.  There are some indications that the  Starbucks coffee maker is better named an espresso maker (see article) and with a price of 199 or 399 (see article)  is likely to attract a certain level of Starbucks customer rather than be able to garner interest from a wide variety of other competitor's customers.  But, we'll wait for the first reviews on this machine from the general public to see how this might impact holiday sales (or not).
Looking forward, SBUX has movement into yield for both the core and the transient and this is occurring at a time when the USA economy is likely to be experiencing some gains (see USA economy) and the Global economy (see GLOBAL economy) would not have any setbacks (at least for the short term). The momentum starts about the beginning of October and continues until mid-November 2012.  Although, the movement into Yield is not at a 400+ level, the USA economy is also likely to move at this time and will "lift all ships".

This write-up includes a newer version of the graphs —the algorithm used to generate the graphs has been revised slightly.  This impacts all economic/country and company graphs and all will soon be updated to the new version.



April 29, 2012  -- Starbucks Risk/Yield for 2012

Starbucks has had a significant increase in stock price since the beginning of the 2012 year but, the recent earnings even though they beat, triggered a sell off of the stock with higher volume than average.  The decrease in price was significant enough that it may have hit or passed through support levels.  One article (located here) mentions that the stock price may have gotten a bit lofty and then with some disappointment from investors who expected better resulted in the downtrend.

The astrological configurations for this stock place it predominantly in the "yield" area for the year with just a few bounces near or into "risk". One of those bounces is occurring at the May 2012 period (and again in August 2012) and while it is just below the "0", it does bear watching.  

The early part of the 2012 year did have some positive data points such that they caused a momentum of 400+ points into "yield" but, they are now moving away and while there are still some positive data points, there are not as many and there are now negative data points showing in the picture.  There is an uptick in June but, it is only 200 points which may not be enough momentum to spark a stock price increase. There is a "transient surge (green line) in May 2012 but, that may simply be good news and with that, it may not spark a stock price increase.

New stores could provide significant growth opportunities but, at this time not sure when and where the stores are expected to open. Another factor is the local "tastes" and whether the "coffee product" will fit the market in places like China that are accustomed to tea.

Also, Starbucks had released information early in April that they planned to move into making high-end coffee makers (see article here).  At the time of this news announcement, there was a stressful astrological configuration which might indicate (amoung other things) that the fall introduction of this product might slip a bit into the November period and if so, could miss the "holiday season".

We'll check back in the summer and see where this stock went ....

        SBUX Delta Core/Transient 2012 graph

       SBUX Risk/Yield 2012 graph

Disclosure as of 4/29/2012 - Starbucks (SBUX) is not part of our portfolio at this time.