Lioness Associates, Inc.

Economic & Corporate Risk/Yield Reports

July 25, 2012  -- Under Armour Risk/Yield for 2012

Under Armour recently reported earnings and they beat estimates (see article).  An interesting note in the article is that Under Armour's strongest quarters are usually the last two quarters of the year rather than the first two quarters.  This bodes well for the next two quarters.

Under Armour's sales are not predominantly from Europe (see article) and as a result, the slowdown there is not significantly impacting the bottom line.  In addition, there are new products, like a cotton that dries faster, that are apparently finding favor with customers. 

The UA 2012 Risk/Yield graph illustrates there is a preponderance of yield data factors during the 2012 year. The year starts with a yield momentum from February to the middle of March and a second yield momentum from the middle of July to the beginning of September.  This second momentum occurs during a traditional "back-to-school" shopping period and could signal decent sales of this company's products during this period.

While both the UA Delta Core/Transient and Risk/Yield graphs show signs of a drop in momentum at the end of the year, this could be compensated for by a better performance of the USA economy (see home page for USA 2012) graph. 

The astrological data factors indicate that there may be more than the usual amount of activity and money geared towards new products and processes in the coming months. Only time will tell whether this is an accurate assessment. 

Note, the two graphs used in the description are based on the NYSE listing date of 12/18/2006 provided on NYSE web site.  There is a previous initial NASDAQ listing date of 11/18/2005 provided on the Under Armour website.  These additional graphs are also displayed and noted in the title with the "11/18/2005" listing date.  Both sets of graphs, while they may seem contradictory at certain points in time, can be pertinent in providing information.  Both sets are included here to maintain accuracy.





Disclosure as of 7/25/2012 - Under Armour (UA) is not part of our portfolio at this time.