August 19, 2013 -- USA Economy for September 2013 In the "US Economy for May 2013" we stated "The upward movement seems to be intact until the end of May ... but, June becomes a question as to whether it can continue it's upward drive. While there may be a correction in June, it appears that it may spur the market to greater heights in July. As mentioned in earlier USA economy updates, August /September is a downward movement that ends in Risk possibly indicating some changes in USA interest rates or similar "market shaking" news. A side note, the news that this year Bernanke is NOT attending the economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming is interesting and could end up being fuel for any market "shakiness"."
As the graphs indicate (and have indicated since the beginning of the 2013 year), there is a downward pull starting in August and continuing into September and bottoming out slightly in the Risk area around the middle of September. While the move down from the high in Yield appears drastic, the move into Risk (below 0, equilibrium) is relatively slight in September (but, it still moves into risk) and then it starts a bounce back into Yield around the November timeframe. The movement in August/September would indicate a loss of momentum but not necessarily a precipitous decline, rather, one that is a result of confusion about the market signals and as a result, more investors move to sidelines.
The end of the year is looking a bit more dramatic with the move into Risk around December 2013.
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